Pakistan braces for monsoons from July 1; moderate to heavy rains expected

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is set to receive its first widespread monsoon spell of the season this week, bringing relief from the intense heat but also increasing the risk of urban flooding, flash floods, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) across several parts of the country, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and provincial disaster management authorities.

The PMD said a westerly wave entering the country's upper regions from the night of June 30, combined with moisture-laden currents from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, will trigger widespread rain, windstorms and thundershowers from July 1. The system is expected to ease the prevailing hot and humid conditions but may also cause heavy rainfall, damaging windstorms and lightning.

Rain with isolated heavy falls is forecast in Kashmir from July 1 to 6, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from July 1 to 5, northern and central Punjab, including Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore, from July 1 to 6, southern Punjab from July 3 to 5, Gilgit-Baltistan from July 1 to 5, northeastern Balochistan from July 1 to 4, and northern Sindh from July 3 to 4.

The Met Office warned that heavy rains could trigger urban flooding in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Faisalabad and Peshawar between July 1 and 4, while flash floods are likely in local streams and hill torrents, particularly in upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Dera Ghazi Khan. Landslides are also possible in vulnerable mountainous areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir between July 2 and 6. Authorities have been advised to remain vigilant, while tourists and farmers have been urged to take precautionary measures.

Punjab braces for strong monsoon spells

Punjab is expected to receive one of the strongest monsoon spells. The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) says the first phase of the monsoon will begin on July 1, with a stronger rain-bearing system arriving on July 3.

Speaking to Pakistan TV Digital, PDMA Punjab Director Hameed Ullah Malik said widespread heavy rainfall is expected in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Chakwal, Sialkot, Narowal, Mandi Bahauddin, Nankana Sahib, Sargodha, Lahore and surrounding districts, with rainfall totals reaching up to 150 millimeters in some areas.

Early warnings have already been issued, he said, urging residents not to dump waste into drainage channels and to keep stormwater drains clear to reduce the risk of flooding.

Although river levels are expected to remain within normal limits, heavy downpours could still inundate urban centers. Malik also noted that humidity is likely to remain high after the rains, causing “feels-like” temperatures to rise again once skies clear.

Lahore remained under severe heat on Monday, with the heat index reaching 43 degrees Celsius due to high humidity, while the "feels-like" temperature hovered between 49 C and 51 C.

Multilayered environmental threat

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, authorities are preparing for what they describe as a “multilayered environmental threat,” as heavy monsoon rains coincide with accelerated glacier melt caused by recent heatwaves.

The PDMA KP has warned that the combination significantly increases the risk of GLOFs, flash floods and landslides across northern districts.

“We are dealing with a multi-layered environmental threat this year,” PDMA spokesperson Anwar Shehzad told Pakistan TV Digital. “The effects of severe heat have already destabilized glacial lakes in our northern districts. Adding monsoon rain to this means the risk of sudden floods and landslides in July is heightened.”

The province has activated its monsoon contingency plan, with its Provincial Emergency Operations Center operating around the clock. Deputy commissioners in vulnerable districts, including Upper and Lower Chitral, Shangla, Kohistan and Mansehra, have been directed to pre-position rescue machinery, stock emergency supplies and keep key roads open.

Shehzad urged tourists and residents to avoid unnecessary travel near rivers and streams during heavy rainfall and warned against swimming or attempting to cross flooded waterways.

He said citizens should use the PDMA's 1700 toll-free helpline to report emergencies.

Cloudburst threats for Sindh, Balochistan

In Sindh and Balochistan, experts say the season presents a different but equally serious challenge. Although seasonal forecasts indicate below-normal overall rainfall and above-normal temperatures that could push interior regions to as high as 53 C, climate specialists warn that isolated cloudbursts remain a major concern.

“Climate volatility means we have to rewrite our traditional risk assessments. A 'below-normal' seasonal average can still contain single-day deluges that completely overwhelm existing municipal drainage networks,” environmentalist Tariq Alexander Qaiser told Pakistan TV Digital.

Dr Shaista Tabassum, an expert on international relations and transboundary water governance at the University of Karachi, said increasingly erratic monsoon patterns are placing growing pressure on governance, water management and disaster response systems.

“The physical challenges of the monsoon cannot be separated from structural resource management,” she said. “Whether dealing with a deficit of water or sudden hyper-local flooding, our institutional capacity to distribute relief, maintain urban drainage, and secure agricultural livelihoods is constantly being tested.”

She added that public messaging should clearly communicate that dry spells do not necessarily mean lower risk.

“Citizens need to remain vigilant regarding rapid drainage clearings around households to curb vector-borne diseases like dengue, while simultaneously maintaining extreme heat precautions during the stagnant, humid intervals between rains,” she said.

Authorities in both provinces have already begun preparations. The Balochistan government has approved a Rs7.5 billion multi-hazard emergency plan covering flood response, heatstroke units and wildfire preparedness, while Sindh's PDMA has accelerated urban desilting operations and reinforced embankments along the Indus basin ahead of the monsoon season.