ISLAMABAD: India’s approval of the 260-megawatt Dulhasti Stage-II hydropower project on the Chenab River in the Kishtwar district of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir marks a shift in South Asia’s water politics and underscores growing strain on the Indus Waters Treaty, according to a report published by The National Interest on Friday.
The report, titled “India’s Indus Gamble: How Water Is Becoming a Strategic Weapon in South Asia,” authored by Saima Afzal, says the project goes beyond routine infrastructure expansion and reflects “a deeper transformation in South Asia’s water politics” following India’s April 2025 decision to place the treaty in abeyance.
India's Dulhasti Stage-II project, approved at an estimated cost of $395 million, will be developed by Indian public-sector company NHPC Limited and will use existing infrastructure from the 390-megawatt Dulhasti Stage-I plant commissioned in 2007, the report stated.
Indian officials have maintained that the project qualifies as a run-of-the-river scheme permissible under the treaty, the journal reported.
However, the report argues that treaty compliance “cannot be evaluated in isolation from cumulative hydrological impact, strategic intent, or the concurrent erosion of dispute-resolution mechanisms that have governed Indus waters for more than six decades.”
Signed in 1960 under World Bank mediation, the Indus Waters Treaty allocated control of the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers to India, while granting Pakistan rights over the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers, with limited non-consumptive use allowed to India under strict conditions. The report notes that the treaty contains no provision for unilateral suspension or termination.
Despite this, the report says India halted hydrological data sharing after the April 2025 Pahalgam incident, questioned dispute-resolution mechanisms and accelerated several long-contested projects, including Ratle, Pakal Dul, Bursar, Sawalkot, Kiru, Kwar and Kirthai-I and II.
"Let flow"
In August, the Permanent Court of Arbitration reaffirmed that India is obligated to “let flow” the waters of the western rivers for Pakistan’s unrestricted use, confirming that treaty obligations remain legally binding, the report said.
The Chenab River is described as “a major contributor to Pakistan’s agricultural and economic stability,” supporting irrigation for wheat, rice and sugarcane. The report notes that more than 80 percent of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on the Indus Basin and that even limited disruptions in water timing or volume can have significant economic and humanitarian effects.
Altering river morphology
According to the report, Dulhasti Stage-II will draw additional water from the Marusudar River through the Pakal Dul project.
The report highlights how the “Indian environmental clearance documents themselves acknowledge that this reconfiguration will alter river morphology and ecology,” affecting a 25-kilometer stretch downstream.
“Effectively weaponized water”
Citing a US-based Eurasia Group assessment of global risks for 2026, the report states that India has “effectively weaponized water” by suspending treaty obligations and withholding hydrological data, warning that such actions threaten agriculture, food security and rural livelihoods in Pakistan.
“Dulhasti Stage-II is therefore more than a hydropower project,” the report said. “It is a test case for whether the Indus Waters Treaty remains a living framework or becomes an eroded relic.”
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