ISLAMABAD: The defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye in Makkah earlier this month signals the emergence of a new regional order in the Middle East, according to Dr Annelle Sheline, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
Sheline, who previously served as a US State Department foreign affairs officer before resigning in March 2024 over the Biden administration’s support for Israeli military operations in Gaza, made the remarks in an interview with Pakistan TV Digital’s South Speaks with Saqib.
“I don't think the Mecca agreement signals necessarily a new world order. I think it does signal perhaps a new regional order,” Sheline said.
“Countries in the region are making very clear that they no longer believe the US is a source of stability or a trustworthy guarantor of security,” she said.
Sheline said Israel’s strike on Qatar in September 2025 was decisive in changing regional perceptions of security guarantees.
“That was really unconscionable, and Israel became seen as perhaps a greater threat than Iran,” she said, describing Washington’s failure to stop the strike as “a wake-up call” for Gulf states.
The same pattern followed the wider US-Israeli operation against Iran launched on February 28, she said.
“The US has been largely unable to really protect the GCC states from Iranian attack,” she said.
Sheline said Saudi Arabia’s decision to deepen defense ties with Pakistan and Turkiye reflected the military weight of both countries.
“Pakistan is a nuclear armed state. Turkey is a member of NATO and a significant military power in its own right,” she said.
Sheline said the agreement has been viewed in Washington as a marker of declining US influence, citing commentary from Council on Foreign Relations expert Steven Cook and writer Robert Kagan describing the development as signaling the end of the US-led order.
US President Donald Trump, however, publicly welcomed the pact as “a very important and bold step,” Sheline said, linking his response to his broader push for US allies to assume greater responsibility for their own security, while noting that Israel remains an exception.
On warming US-Pakistan relations, Sheline said Islamabad worked hard to position itself as a mediator after Trump grew frustrated with Qatar and Oman.
She said the shift in Washington’s approach likely reflects Pakistan’s growing usefulness as a regional interlocutor.
The Makkah Joint Defense Agreement was signed on August 7 by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Under the agreement, an armed attack against any one of the three countries is to be considered an attack against all three.
The agreement brings together Saudi Arabia’s financial and political weight, Turkiye’s military capabilities and defense industry, and Pakistan’s substantial military capacity, creating a new framework for defense cooperation among the three countries.