ISLAMABAD: The catastrophic floods that have killed more than 1,200 people across Southeast Asia in recent weeks are not a distant warning for South Asia but “a mirror of what Pakistan has already experienced and will face again,” according to climate scientists.
Across Indonesia and Sri Lanka, rapid heatwaves followed by early monsoon onset and cloudburst-style rainfall, the same sequence that devastated Pakistan in 2022 and again in 2025, have displaced more than 1.5 million people since late November.
“South Asia has entered ‘new operating conditions’ where traditional monsoon timelines no longer apply,” said Dr. Zainab Naeem, an environmental sciences researcher at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute. Speaking to Pakistan TV Digital, she added: “What’s happening in Southeast Asia right now mirrors exactly what we've been experiencing in Pakistan.”
Parallel crises across region
In Indonesia, the island of Sumatra recorded 604 deaths after a rare tropical storm triggered widespread flash floods and landslides. In Sri Lanka, Cyclone Ditwah killed at least 355 people and forced nearly 180,000 residents into emergency shelters. In both countries, prolonged dry spells were followed by sudden, moisture-laden systems that unleashed months’ worth of rainfall in a matter of days.
Asia warming faster than global average
According to regional climate assessments, Asia is warming nearly twice as fast as the global average, leading to more frequent and more intense extreme weather events. In 2023 alone, the continent experienced 79 water-related disasters, the majority of them floods and storms.
Pakistan has already felt the force of this shift. The 2022 floods submerged one-third of the country, killed more than 1,700 people, and caused damages and economic losses estimated at $30 billion, according to the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment and World Bank figures.
This year, unseasonably early monsoon systems again triggered deadly flooding across multiple provinces.
Women face disproportionate impacts
Women remain at heightened risk during climate-driven disasters. During Pakistan’s 2022 floods, the UN Population Fund estimated that 650,000 pregnant women were in affected areas, with around 73,000 expected to give birth without access to maternal health services.
Protection systems frequently collapse in displacement camps, increasing incidents of gender-based violence. Women, who often work agricultural land without legally owning it, are also excluded from compensation schemes when crops are destroyed.
Science–policy gap leaves countries exposed
Despite growing scientific clarity, preparedness remains uneven across the region.
“The biggest problem is not the absence of policies, it’s the disconnect between high-level frameworks and ground implementation,” Dr. Naeem said. “Technical expertise is missing in many departments. Without integrating scientific evidence into urban planning and governance, we simply cannot manage these impacts.”
Cities across South and Southeast Asia continue to expand into flood-prone zones, while drainage systems and protective infrastructure remain outdated or overstretched.
Warning Pakistan cannot ignore
Rescue operations in Indonesia and Sri Lanka are ongoing, with military aircraft airlifting patients from inundated hospitals and naval vessels delivering supplies to isolated districts. The events underscore a clear message for Pakistan: such disasters are no longer “once in a generation.”
Regional environmental agencies stress the urgent need to strengthen early-warning systems, redesign land-use planning, and invest in climate-resilient infrastructure. Without such measures, they warn, human and economic losses will accelerate.
Pakistan’s 2022 floods were described as unprecedented. Three years later, similarly devastating events have become routine across Asia. The question is no longer whether such disasters will strike again, but whether governments will be prepared when they do.
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