LONDON: OPEC+ ministers meet Sunday to weigh higher production quotas in a bid to cap oil prices that have surged since the Iran war effectively choked off Gulf crude shipments. But even if the cartel members vow to ramp up output by thousands of barrels per day, analysts say geopolitical realities mean they probably won&#39;t move the needle on prices. With the crucial Strait of Hormuz shut since US and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, oil prices have nearly doubled, igniting inflation pressures worldwide. Ministers from the 21 member states of OPEC+, the main oil-producing nations and their allies, are holding their quarterly meeting online. The group is likely to beef up its production quotas by &quot;188,000 barrels a day&quot;, said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy, similar to recent increases. But in reality, only seven members &mdash; Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman &mdash; have the capacity to do so. Dwindling supply Tehran&#39;s threats of retaliatory attacks to US and Israeli strikes have virtually blocked the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies normally pass. That is equivalent to about 20 million barrels a day. But with key Gulf producers shut out of the global market, pledges to raise output in a bid to ease spiralling prices are unlikely to sway traders. &quot;Any announced production increases or changes to output targets will have limited practical value,&quot; said Ole Hansen, a commodities analyst at Saxo Bank. &quot;There is very little OPEC can do,&quot; he told AFP. OPEC+ itself says daily production has plummeted to just 33 million barrels a day as tankers remain stuck, compared to nearly 43 million before the conflict. A US blockade on Iranian ports means &quot;it will be even less than that&quot; in reality, said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at data firm Kpler. UAE slams the door The United Arab Emirates&#39; recent decision to quit OPEC further saps away at the cartel&#39;s influence, given its huge excess production capacity. And Abu Dhabi has made clear it wants to boost output. &quot;They don&#39;t want to be dictated to, they want to maximise their revenues,&quot; said Lawrence Haar, a lecturer in finance at the University of Brighton in England. And the cartel risks seeing other countries follow the UAE&#39;s example. &quot;If Iraq were to leave, it could mark the end of OPEC+,&quot; Falakshahi said. Saudi Arabia, by far the cartel&#39;s most influential member, &quot;is going to do what it takes to stop anyone else from leaving,&quot; Falakshahi predicted. That could translate into more flexible output quotas or decreased penalties for any excess production. But &quot;for now, the compensation framework has effectively become irrelevant due to widespread production shut-ins,&quot; Hansen said. As a result, the Iran war has largely neutralised the cartel&#39;s stated mission &quot;to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, and a steady income to producers&quot;. For Falakshahi, the only factor limiting further oil price spikes at the moment is China, &quot;which is buying less oil than normal&quot; by tapping into its vast strategic reserves.

ADNOC refinery site in Ruwais, UAE. (File photo: Wikimedia Commons)

Business

OPEC+ ministers meet Sunday to weigh higher production quotas in a bid to cap oil prices that have surged since the Iran war effectively choked off Gulf crude shipments.

As OPEC+ meets, Iran war hobbles power to shape oil market

Web Desk/AFP

Middle East

Americas

Oil prices plunged more than 5% in Asian early trading on Monday as hopes of a US-Iran deal to end the Middle East war rose despite comments from President Donald Trump downplaying its imminence.

Middle East roundup, May 24: Oil prices fall over 5% on hopes for Iran deal

BEIJING: China&#39;s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing would play a &quot;greater role&quot; in ending hostilities in the Middle East during talks with his Iranian counterpart on Wednesday, a week before US President Donald Trump is due to meet Xi Jinping. China is a key customer for Iranian oil, defying sanctions imposed by the United States, and is directly affected by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz bordered by Iran. Beijing has quietly engaged in efforts to resolve the weekslong crisis, and its diplomacy is credited with playing an important role in the fragile ceasefire agreed between Washington and Tehran. China &quot;will work harder to ease tensions and end the fighting, continue to support the launch of peace talks, and play a greater role in restoring peace and tranquility to the Middle East&quot;, Wang told Iran&#39;s Abbas Araghchi in Beijing. &quot;China considers that a complete cessation of fighting must be achieved without delay, that it is even more unacceptable to restart hostilities, and that continuing to negotiate remains essential,&quot; Wang said, according to a statement from his ministry after the talks. Manufacturing giant China has been comparatively sheltered from fuel shortages thanks to oil reserves and renewable energy, but costs of oil-derived materials like plastic and fabric have risen significantly. More than half of the crude imported by sea to China comes from the Middle East and mainly transits through the Hormuz strait, according to maritime analytics firm Kpler. Analysts have warned that the war&#39;s impact on China will be felt for months. During Wednesday&#39;s talks, Wang said China hopes &quot;the parties concerned will respond as quickly as possible to the urgent call of the international community&quot; for a resumption of normal and safe maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump trip loomsThe Wang-Araghchi talks came as Trump said the US would pause escorting commercial ships through the Hormuz Strait -- which drew Iranian attacks -- barely a day after it began doing so. Trump cited a desire to reach a peace deal with Iran. Washington demands tight controls on Tehran&#39;s nuclear programme, which Iran has refused to agree to and has led to talks crumbling. &quot;On the nuclear issue, China welcomes Iran&#39;s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, while considering that Iran has the legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy,&quot; Wang said. The US leader is expected to meet Chinese President Xi in Beijing on a visit the White House said will take place May 14-15. Beijing has not confirmed those dates. A foreign ministry spokesman again refused to share details when asked about Trump&#39;s visit at a regular news conference on Wednesday. Trump would join rulers from the Gulf, Europe and Southeast Asia that have recently landed face time with Xi, who has sought to position China as a stable partner in the face of the US- and Israeli-led conflict. Trump&#39;s visit would also come more than a year after his sweeping global tariffs wreaked havoc on the supply chain, causing chaos in China&#39;s manufacturing sector.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi holds talks with Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in Beijing on May 06, 2026. (Photo: IRNA)

China is a key customer for Iranian oil, defying sanctions imposed by the United States, and is directly affected by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz bordered by Iran.

China says will play 'greater role' in ending Mideast fighting

US President Donald Trump signals possible new Iran talks in Pakistan within two days; tells the New York Post Islamabad is increasingly likely as host; praises Field Marshal Asim Munir for his leadership.

Day 46: All you need to know about US-Israel war on Iran

Web Desk

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan&rsquo;s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar will visit Riyadh from March 18 to 19, at the invitation of the Saudi Foreign Minister, to participate in an emergency meeting of Arab and Islamic foreign ministers on regional developments, the Foreign Office (FO) announced. &ldquo;He [Dar] will reiterate Pakistan&rsquo;s call for a swift end to the ongoing conflict and urge the need for return to dialogue and diplomacy,&rdquo; according to the FO.&nbsp;During the visit, Foreign Minister Dar will express complete support for the territorial integrity, sovereignty, and political independence of all brotherly countries in the region and call for an end to all attacks on their territory. The foreign minister will highlight Pakistan&rsquo;s diplomatic outreach efforts and its desire to continue playing a pivotal role in resolving the grave security crisis facing the region.&nbsp;Saudi Arabia has convened the meeting on Wednesday to discuss ways to strengthen regional security and stability. The meeting comes as tensions across the Middle East continue to surge following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets that triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks across the region, raising fears of a wider conflict involving multiple countries and key global energy routes.&nbsp;The Middle East conflict has intensified after Iran confirmed the deaths of security chief Ali Larijani and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani, promising revenge.

Foreign Affairs

Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar will visit Riyadh to attend a meeting on regional developments and will reiterate Pakistan’s call for a swift end to the ongoing conflict, urging a return to dialogue and diplomacy.

Articles tagged with "middle east conflict"

As OPEC+ meets, Iran war hobbles power to shape oil market

Middle East roundup, May 24: Oil prices fall over 5% on hopes for Iran deal

China says will play 'greater role' in ending Mideast fighting

Day 46: All you need to know about US-Israel war on Iran

Pakistan foreign minister to attend Riyadh regional meeting amid escalating Mideast conflict