Faraz Saeed

LAHORE: Moody&rsquo;s Investors Service has revised Pakistan&rsquo;s banking sector outlook from &quot;Positive&quot; to &quot;Stable,&quot; citing slow economic recovery and improving financial conditions. &ldquo;We have changed our outlook on Pakistan&rsquo;s banking system to stable from positive,&rdquo; the global rating agency said on Monday.&nbsp; Moody&rsquo;s noted that the operating environment continues to recover, &ldquo;but only gradually, supported by the country&rsquo;s slowly improving economic and fiscal outlook and strengthening external position.&rdquo; The agency also highlighted that while banks&rsquo; financial performance will remain stable over the next 12-18 months, challenges related to asset quality and profitability persist.&nbsp; &ldquo;The sector outlook also aligns with that of the Government of Pakistan (Caa1 stable), given banks&rsquo; substantial holdings of government securities, which account for around half of total banking assets,&rdquo; Moody&rsquo;s said. It added that Pakistan&rsquo;s long-term debt sustainability remains uncertain due to a still-weak fiscal position and external vulnerabilities. Moody&rsquo;s projects that Pakistan&rsquo;s economy will grow by about 3.5% in 2026, a slight increase from 3.1% in 2025. Inflation has significantly reduced to 4.5% in 2025, down from 23% in 2024, but is expected to rise again to approximately 7.5% in 2026. Lower inflation is helping reduce borrowing costs, which may encourage more borrowing and stabilize banks&#39; loan quality. Despite recent floods affecting agriculture, the industrial and service sectors are expected to remain strong. Although there were initial spikes in loan defaults, Moody&rsquo;s anticipates robust credit growth in 2026. Even with some weaknesses, banks should keep their problem loan ratios around 8% and maintain solid capital ratios, indicating a healthy balance. Waqas Ghani, Head of Research, JS Global, said, &ldquo;It is clear that sustained improvement will depend on effective policy implementation and greater external financial support, as risks are still hanging around.&rdquo; He added of the revision that, &quot;This development is not expected to materially alter the overall outlook of the sector.&quot; However, the stable outlook does reflect a positive shift toward a more stable banking environment, linking banks&rsquo; health closely to the government&rsquo;s economic outlook. Lower interest rates are expected to support credit growth without significantly increasing risk. Overall, Moody&rsquo;s rating indicates that while there are still risks, Pakistan&rsquo;s banks are on a path to gradual recovery, offering a more balanced outlook in the current emerging-market landscape.

Economy

Moody’s has changed Pakistan’s banking outlook to stable, citing gradual economic recovery, lower inflation, improving financial conditions, and expectations that banks will remain stable and well-capitalized over the next year.

Moody’s revises Pakistan’s banking sector outlook to stable amid gradual recovery

JOHANNESBURG: Billionaires in the world&rsquo;s leading economies made $2.2 trillion last year, which would have been enough to lift all the world&rsquo;s poor out of poverty, global campaign group Oxfam said Thursday. The British-based charity urged this weekend&rsquo;s summit of the powerful Group of 20 major economies to back initiatives by the host, South Africa, to address massive global wealth inequality and the debt undermining developing countries. Billionaires in the 19 countries that are part of the grouping made $2.2 trillion last year as their combined wealth grew to $15.6 trillion, it said, basing its figures on the Forbes list. &ldquo;The annual cost to lift up the 3.8 billion people who currently live below the poverty line is $1.65 trillion,&rdquo; it said in a statement. Oxfam backed a recommendation that South Africa will present to the Nov. 22&ndash;23 summit for the establishment of an international panel to tackle inequality in the same way the U.N.&rsquo;s IPCC works on the threat from global warming. &ldquo;If the South African G20 establishes a new International Panel on Inequality it will be a tremendous step in addressing the inequality emergency,&rdquo; Executive Director Amitabh Behar said in the statement. Oxfam also called for the world&rsquo;s wealthy to be &ldquo;fairly taxed in order to help end poverty and fight the climate breakdown.&rdquo; It singled out the United States, which is boycotting the Johannesburg meeting, as championing &ldquo;destructive policies &mdash; from reckless tariffs to regressive tax breaks and cuts to life-saving aid&rdquo; that increase inequality between the rich and poor. Calling for action on debt, it said 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest repayments than on education or health. The G20 includes 19 countries as well as the European Union and African Union, which together represent 85 percent of global GDP and two-thirds of the world population. South Africa hopes its summit, the first G20 in Africa, will advance issues facing the continent and developing countries in the &ldquo;Global South&rdquo; before the rotating presidency is handed to the United States for 2026.

FILE PHOTO: A view of the Fish Market (WWF Pakistan)

Africa

Europe

Americas

Billionaires in the world’s leading economies made $2.2 trillion last year, which would have been enough to lift all the world’s poor out of poverty, global campaign group Oxfam said Thursday

G20 billionaires could end world poverty in one year's earnings: Oxfam

HONG KONG: One of China&rsquo;s most important meetings begins Monday, as leader Xi Jinping and other ruling Communist Party elites gather in Beijing to map out the goals for the next five years. The closed-door gathering &mdash; known as the fourth plenum &mdash; is expected to last four days and will discuss and put the final touches on China&rsquo;s next five-year plan, a blueprint for 2026-2030. The leaders are meeting at a time of heightened trade tensions between Washington and Beijing and just ahead of a possible meeting between Xi and US President Donald Trump during a regional summit later this month. Here is what to know about the meeting: What the fourth plenum is and why it mattersThe fourth plenum refers to the fourth plenary session, out of typically a total of seven sessions during the five-year term of the Chinese Communist Party&rsquo;s central committee. Xi and about 370 members of the central committee are expected to attend. The gathering also may coincide with personnel changes. Since it&#39;s held behind closed doors, details may come days or weeks later. Such gatherings are meant to help unite officials and the public behind the party&#39;s agenda. The full five-year plan for 2026-2030 and specifics will likely not be released until the annual session of the National People&#39;s Congress is held in March. But there is little reason to expect a radical shift away from the format and messaging style of previous five-year plans, Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank, said in an interview. What to expect in China&rsquo;s next &#39;five-year plan&#39;The world&rsquo;s second-largest economy is forecast to expand by 4.8% this year, according to the World Bank, a figure close to China&rsquo;s official target of about 5% growth. China faces challenges from the trade war that has intensified since Trump took office, but also from chronic domestic problems that are dragging on growth. Longstanding efforts to boost consumer spending and investment by businesses and to curb excess capacity in many industries top the list of economic priorities. But Xi also will likely highlight China&#39;s push to become the global leader in many technologies, such as artificial intelligence. China&rsquo;s pursuit of technological &ldquo;self-sufficiency,&rdquo; weaning its industries of their reliance on advanced computer chips from the US, has sped up as Trump tightens American export control measures and raises tariffs. That could result in more spending on advanced technology, said Ning Zhang, a senior China economist at UBS. One key question is whether there will be any meaningful shift in the leadership&rsquo;s approach to boosting consumption, said Leah Fahy, a China economist at Capital Economics. The government has adopted incremental policy moves &mdash; such as increased government subsidies for childcare, consumer loans, and trade-in programs for appliances and electric vehicles. Boosting consumption, which would drive borrowing and demand, is &ldquo;much more important than before&rdquo; but consumer confidence has been undermined by the bursting of China&#39;s property bubble several years ago, Zhang explained. Economists say bolder moves are needed to make a significant difference. Price wars in the auto industry are an example of the risks of the ferocious competition that results from overcapacity that afflicts many Chinese industries. China&#39;s exports &mdash; including to Southeast Asia and Africa &mdash; have surged as companies seek markets beyond its borders, adding to friction with the United States and other trading partners. China&#39;s chief challenges in the next five yearsSince the massive disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, China has struggled to reignite faster economic growth. Its property sector downturn has complicated that effort, causing massive layoffs and leading families to cut back on spending as house prices have fallen. Wendy Leutert, a professor of economics and trade at Indiana University, noted in a recent report that China is still stinting on spending on areas that might help to balance the economy and encourage more consumer spending, such as health care, education and child and elder care. &ldquo;Overall, China&rsquo;s leaders still appear willing to accept economic costs, including resource misallocation and failures, in order to pursue self-sufficiency and technological leadership in strategically important industries and strengthen overall national power,&rdquo; she wrote. While it faces increasing friction with the US and other trading partners, China is also running up against demographic pressures, as its population of 1.4 billion begins to shrink and age more rapidly. The unemployment rate for young workers aged 16-24 is nearly 19%, according to official data, impinging on their potential contributions to the economy. The Chinese leadership has set a goal of doubling the size of China&rsquo;s economy in 2020 by 2035, and like any other government, &ldquo;still cares (about) growth and is still trying to get richer,&rdquo; said Zhang of UBS. He estimates that keeping the economy growing at a robust 4% to 5% pace in the next decade will likely be &ldquo;challenging.&rdquo; But it&#39;s imperative to show it is striving for such ambitious goals, to demonstrate the ruling party&#39;s capacity to keep delivering a better quality of life &mdash; its chief claim to its legitimacy. &quot;For China&rsquo;s leadership, what do they care about? Stability, legitimacy, and also ongoing support,&quot; he said.

Asia

China’s Communist Party, led by Xi Jinping, is holding its fourth plenum to finalize the 2026–2030 five-year plan, focusing on economic growth, technology self-sufficiency, consumer spending, and stability amid trade tensions and domestic challenges.

Articles tagged with "economy"

Moody’s revises Pakistan’s banking sector outlook to stable amid gradual recovery

G20 billionaires could end world poverty in one year's earnings: Oxfam

China's ruling Communist Party meets to map out plans for the next 5 years