Saqib Tanveer

ISLAMABAD:<strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;" id="isPasted">&nbsp;A generation ago, geopolitical analysts warned that the world&#39;s future conflicts would be fought over water rather than oil. &quot;The wars of the new millennium would be fought over water,&quot; former World Bank Vice President Ismail Serageldin predicted in the mid-1990s. That warning appears increasingly relevant.&nbsp; In April 2025, India announced that it was suspending its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark water-sharing agreement signed in September 1960 and brokered by the World Bank. The treaty has survived three wars and numerous periods of political hostility between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, making it one of the world&#39;s most enduring international water-sharing agreements.&nbsp;Indus Waters Treaty&nbsp;The Indus Waters Treaty governs the use of the rivers that flow from India into Pakistan through the Indus basin. Under the agreement, the Western Rivers, the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, were allocated primarily to Pakistan, while the Eastern Rivers, the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, were allocated to India, with each country enjoying specified rights and obligations. For Pakistan, the issue extends well beyond diplomacy. The Indus River system is the country&#39;s primary source of irrigation, supporting its agriculture, food security, textile industry and significant portions of its energy generation. Any prolonged disruption to these water flows would have profound economic, environmental and humanitarian consequences.&nbsp;Matter of national security&nbsp;Pakistan has also framed the issue in explicit national security terms. Following a meeting of the National Security Committee on April 24, 2025, the Foreign Office stated that the Indus Waters Treaty is &quot;a binding international agreement brokered by the World Bank and contains no provision for unilateral suspension.&quot; The statement further declared that &quot;Water is a Vital National Interest of Pakistan, a lifeline for its 240 million people and its availability will be safeguarded at all costs.&quot; It warned that &quot;any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty, and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power.&quot; These statements underscore how disputes over water could become catalysts for broader military escalation between two nuclear-armed states. Even a limited conflict carries risks that extend far beyond South Asia.&nbsp;The nuclear threatScientific research suggests that the consequences of a large-scale India-Pakistan nuclear exchange would not remain confined to the region. In a study published in Science Advances, researchers model a scenario in which India uses 100 strategic weapons against urban centers and Pakistan responds with 150.&nbsp; They estimate immediate fatalities of between 50 and 125 million people. The resulting fires could inject between 16 and 36 teragrams of black carbon into the atmosphere, reducing global sunlight by 20&ndash;35 %, lowering average global temperatures by 2&ndash;5C, decreasing precipitation by 15&ndash;30%, and disrupting agricultural productivity for more than a decade.&nbsp; The study concludes that these climatic effects could threaten mass starvation and cause widespread collateral fatalities around the world. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty should therefore not be viewed merely as a bilateral disagreement between India and Pakistan. It represents a challenge to one of the few international agreements that has historically insulated a critical shared resource from armed conflict.&nbsp;Effective transboundary water governance&nbsp;At a time when water scarcity is intensifying globally, preserving effective transboundary water governance is in the interest of the entire international community. Given the World Bank&#39;s historic role in brokering the treaty, and the potentially far-reaching consequences of its collapse, there is a compelling case for renewed diplomatic engagement by the Bank and the broader international community to encourage dialogue, uphold treaty obligations, and reduce the risk of escalation. The stability of the Indus basin is not only a regional concern; it has implications for international peace, food security and global stability.

The Neelum River and settlements along the Line of Control (LoC) between India (L) and Pakistan are pictured on May 3, 2025, from the Neelum Valley, a district in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. (AFP)

Foreign Affairs

Stability of the Indus basin is not only a regional concern, it has implications for international peace, food security and global stability; World Bank Vice President Ismail Serageldin predicted in the mid-1990s that 'the wars of the new millennium would be fought over water', a warning that remains increasingly relevant today.

India's suspension of Indus Waters Treaty is world's problem

Web Desk

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has urged the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to call on India to fully restore the implementation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), warning that its suspension carries &ldquo;grave implications&rdquo; for regional peace, security, and humanitarian conditions. This was conveyed in a letter from the country&rsquo;s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to the president of the UN General Assembly, delivered by Pakistan&rsquo;s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Ambassador Asim Iftikhar, according to a post shared on X by the ambassador on Friday.<div class="fr-embed"><div class="twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered" style="display: flex; max-width: 550px; width: 100%; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;"><iframe id="twitter-widget-0" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" style="position: static; visibility: visible; width: 550px; height: 852px; display: block; flex-grow: 1;" title="X Post" src="https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=2047500206766170494&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fmain.d1wrm1qseko1cp.amplifyapp.com%2Fmedia-library%2F&sessionId=0afcd94fa3858bd744249f4b0c1d5eb6a66c5e49&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&width=550px" data-tweet-id="2047500206766170494"></iframe></div></div>According to the message, Islamabad raised concerns over India&rsquo;s illegal suspension of the 1960 water-sharing agreement, describing it as unlawful and urging international attention. The communication specifically stated that &ldquo;It urges the Security Council to call upon India to fully restore the implementation of the IWT in all respects, in line with its international obligations.&rdquo; Pakistan argued that disruption of the treaty could have serious humanitarian consequences and destabilize regional relations, while framing the issue as one with implications beyond bilateral ties.&nbsp;&lsquo;Baseless propaganda campaign&rsquo;The Pakistani envoy also briefed the President of the Council on the &ldquo;baseless propaganda campaign&rdquo; by India against Pakistan, arguing it was being conducted while Islamabad is engaged in mediation efforts aimed at supporting international peace and security. In addition, Pakistan reiterated that the Jammu and Kashmir dispute remains central to long-standing tensions in South Asia. It noted that the issue is already on the Security Council&rsquo;s agenda and maintained that lasting peace in the region would not be possible without its resolution in accordance with relevant UN resolutions and the wishes of the Kashmiri people.

FM Dar’s letter to the UNGA president highlights the 'grave implications of India’s illegal suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) for regional peace and security, as well as its serious humanitarian consequences.'

Articles tagged with "Pakistan-India Ties"

India's suspension of Indus Waters Treaty is world's problem

Pakistan urges UNSC to call upon India to restore Indus Waters Treaty

India's suspension of Indus Waters Treaty is world's problem