LONDON: Saudi Arabia, Russia, and six other key members of the OPEC+ alliance are likely to agree to raise crude output when they meet virtually on Sunday, with analysts divided over the size of the expected hike. The meeting by the group of eight oil-producing countries, known as the &quot;Voluntary Eight&quot; (V8), comes as oil prices head for weekly losses and rumors of a possible output increase of up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) swirl. Angered by what it dismissed as &quot;wholly inaccurate and misleading&quot; media reports, the 12-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) urged news outlets in a statement on Tuesday to &quot;exercise accuracy... in order to avoid fuelling&quot; market speculation. Experts had initially expected a production hike of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) from November, which would mirror the October increase. But Commerzbank analyst Barbara Lambrecht cautioned that uncertainty remained, as &quot;the group has frequently surprised markets with swift production hikes in the recent past&quot;. Since April, the V8 group -- comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman -- has boosted production by 2.5 million bpd (mbpd) in total. The group has accelerated output increases at a pace that few had predicted at the beginning of the year, following a prolonged period during which producers sought to combat price erosion by implementing production cuts to make oil scarcer. Prices in declineBut in recent months, OPEC+ has shifted its strategy in a bid to regain market share in the face of competition from other countries, and &quot;with output from the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Argentina at or near all-time highs&quot;, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest monthly oil report. However, the IEA emphasized that the global demand outlook for crude &quot;remains largely unchanged&quot;, with growth of around 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) expected for both 2025 and 2026. The OPEC cartel was more optimistic in its latest projections for global oil demand, forecasting increases of 1.3 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2025 and 1.4 mbpd in 2026. According to Tamas Varga of PVM, signs of a &quot;long-awaited glut&quot; are now &quot;loudly knocking on the doors of our market&quot;. Against this backdrop, the possibility of a larger increase in the grouping&#39;s quotas has sent the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for crude oil, plummeting below $65 a barrel, a loss of around eight percent in a week. Russia in uncomfortable positionRussia, the second-largest producer in OPEC+, could oppose a significant increase in quotas from next month, amid concerns that it could cause crude oil prices to fall further. Following last month&#39;s decision, Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon explained that &quot;Russia depends on high prices to fund its war machine&quot; and, unlike Riyadh, the Kremlin has limited potential to increase production due to Western sanctions. Russia, which currently produces around 9.25 mbpd, has a &quot;maximum production capacity of 9.45 mbpd&quot; compared to around 10 mbpd before the war, Homayoun Falakshahi at Kpler told AFP. Moreover, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have intensified since August, translating into &quot;rising crude exports from Russia, as the oil cannot be used domestically&quot;, and making Moscow even more dependent on selling its crude abroad, said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen of Global Risk Management.

Business

Meeting of 'Voluntary Eight' countries follows reports that oil prices head for weekly losses and rumors of a possible output increase; urge news outlets to 'exercise accuracy' when reporting

OPEC+ meets with future oil production hanging in the balance

Web Desk

<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">ISLAMABAD:&nbsp;<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Global oil prices fell to a two-week low on Thursday after an unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories and growing speculation that OPEC+ may raise output in their meeting on Sunday.&nbsp;<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Eight core members, often referred to as the &lsquo;Voluntary Eight&rsquo; (V8), are now weighing an output increase starting in October.&nbsp;<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">The group includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.&nbsp;<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">A final decision is expected at the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday.<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">This comes after their earlier cut production by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), with the United Arab Emirates reducing a further 300,000 bpd to stabilize the market.<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil stockpiles rose by 2.4 million barrels last week, which was unprecedented for analysts who were expecting a 2.0 million barrel draw.&nbsp;<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">The American Petroleum Institute (API) also reported an increase but only by 0.6 million barrels.&nbsp;<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Brent crude for October delivery closed at $68.12 a barrel on Friday, down 50 cents or 0.73%. The November contract, which is now the main one traders follow, slipped 53 cents or 0.78% to end the day at $67.45, as reported by Reuters.&nbsp;<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Eight core members are now considering an output increase in October, Reuters reported, with a final decision expected at the alliance&rsquo;s Sunday meeting.<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Such a move would represent a shift from their strategy adopted in April.<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Analysts say the decision to increase quotas was aimed at regaining market share, following diplomatic pressure from United States President Donald Trump to reduce energy prices.<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Back in January, Trump pushed for oil price reductions during the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Past Comments&nbsp;<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">U.S. President Donald Trump called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce oil prices during the annual World Economic Forum in Davos.&nbsp;<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Speaking to global leaders and business executives, Trump said he would formally request the oil-producing alliance to take action on energy costs.<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">&quot;I&#39;m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil,&quot; Trump announced during the session. He added, &quot;You&#39;ve got to bring down the oil price, you&#39;ve got to end that war. They should have done it long ago; they&#39;re very responsible actually, to a certain extent, for what&#39;s taken place.&quot;<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Trump&rsquo;s comments come amid rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing efforts by the United States to curb Russian oil exports.&nbsp;<span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">His administration has recently imposed tariffs on countries like India for purchasing Russian crude and urged European allies to reduce energy ties with Moscow.

Middle East

OPEC+ may raise output in October, with Saudi Arabia, Russia and others weighing a shift from earlier cuts; oil fell as U.S. inventories rose ahead of Sunday's meeting.


Articles tagged with "Oil Prices"

OPEC+ meets with future oil production hanging in the balance

OPEC+ expected to raise production levels in major strategic shift