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ISLAMABAD: Experts warn India may face a recession in the 2026-27 fiscal year due to increasing economic vulnerabilities.&nbsp;&nbsp;The combination of rising oil prices, heavy dependence on foreign energy imports, and external pressures has raised concerns about slowing growth and a widening current account deficit.&nbsp;Economic analyst Debanchu Moan, professor at Jindal Global University, said that India&rsquo;s macroeconomic fundamentals are under strain.&nbsp;&ldquo;Anything below 6% growth in the Indian context effectively amounts to a deep recession,&rdquo; he told The Wire during a podcast.&nbsp;&nbsp;Rising oil costs and disruptions in key trade routes have pushed the Indian rupee past 95 to the US dollar, with some forecasts suggesting it could reach 100 in the coming weeks.&nbsp;Experts point to the ongoing tensions in the US-Israel-Iran conflict as an indirect factor exacerbating India&rsquo;s economic challenges. Oil supply disruptions, blocked shipping lanes, and inflationary pressures are weighing heavily on India&rsquo;s balance of payments.&nbsp;&nbsp;&ldquo;India&rsquo;s dependence on oil imports from West Asia and its limited strategic petroleum reserves leave it particularly vulnerable,&rdquo; Moan added.&nbsp;The economist also highlighted policy missteps, noting that previous favorable deals, such as discounted oil imports from Iran, were discontinued under US pressure, costing India billions of dollars annually.&nbsp;&nbsp;Additionally, commitments to increase trade with the US while reducing imports from Russia have shifted India&rsquo;s energy dependence in ways that may prove unsustainable.&nbsp;&ldquo;India has a 30-day window to stabilize its balance of payments and implement effective course corrections,&rdquo; Moan said.&nbsp;&nbsp;&ldquo;Without strategic planning and a clear multi-aligned foreign policy, the country risks worsening macroeconomic pressures, including inflation, trade imbalances, and slowing GDP growth.&rdquo;&nbsp;The government has been urged to manage capital flows carefully, maintain a strategic reserve buffer, and reassess its energy import strategy to avoid a deeper economic crisis.&nbsp;

India

Deepanchu Moan, economics professor at Jindal Global University, says India’s reliance on imported oil and gas, particularly from West Asia, leaves the country vulnerable to global supply shocks.

India may slip into recession in 2026-27, economist warns

ISLAMABAD: A majority of Pakistanis are entering 2026 with significantly higher expectations for economic prosperity and global peace than their neighbors in India, defying global trends of pessimism, according to a new survey. The &ldquo;End of Year Survey&rdquo; by the Gallup International Association highlights a distinct divergence in South Asian sentiment. While India records higher levels of general hope for the new year, Pakistan has outperformed its eastern neighbor on specific measures of economic confidence and expectations for a more peaceful world. Economic outlook On the specific question of economic prosperity, Pakistan has emerged as a regional outlier. The poll found that 53% of Pakistani respondents believe 2026 will be a year of economic prosperity, compared with just 39% in India. This confidence is particularly striking when viewed against the global backdrop. The world average for economic optimism sits at just 24%, meaning Pakistan&rsquo;s positive sentiment is more than double the international norm. <img src="https://paktv-assets-7d41fab8.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/uploads/f2a731dd-9f22-43c9-9612-7ab420f1a973-1.png" alt="1.png" class="fr-dib fr-fil"><figcaption class="caption-cover-image text-sm text-gray-600 italic" style="line-height: 2;">Source: Gallup International End of Year Survey 2026</figcaption> The contrast deepens when looking at the overall balance of opinion. Instead of just counting the optimists, the survey calculates a &quot;net score&quot; by subtracting the pessimists. In Pakistan, the hopeful outnumber the fearful by a solid margin of 26 percentage points. In comparison, India&rsquo;s lead is much slimmer, with optimists exceeding pessimists by only 13 points. &quot;Overall, the findings indicate that economic sentiment in Pakistan is notably stronger than both the global average and India, despite widespread global economic pessimism,&quot; the report noted. Hope for peace Pakistan&rsquo;s lead is even more pronounced regarding global stability. According to the data, 52% of Pakistanis expect the world to be more peaceful in 2026. In sharp contrast, only 26% of respondents in India share this view, a figure that aligns with the low global average.<img src="https://paktv-assets-7d41fab8.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/uploads/53d2c3d6-227f-4671-85dd-dad3f3256dfd-2.png" alt="2.png" class="fr-dib fr-fil"><figcaption class="caption-cover-image text-sm text-gray-600 italic" style="line-height: 2;">Source: Gallup International End of Year Survey 2026</figcaption> The divide is starkest when weighing hope against fear. While Pakistan remains firmly in positive territory (+31%), India actually slides into the negative. There, the pessimists outnumber the optimists by 9 points, meaning more Indians expect the world to become &quot;more troubled&quot; than &quot;more peaceful.&quot; General hope While Pakistan leads on specific economic and peace metrics, the survey indicates that India holds a stronger sense of general hope for the year ahead. When asked simply if 2026 will be generally &quot;better&quot; than 2025, 59% of respondents in India said yes, compared to 51% in Pakistan. However, the report noted that Pakistan&rsquo;s outlook remains resilient; its 51% optimism rate places it well above the global average of 37%. Drivers of optimism The surge in Pakistani optimism appears to be primarily driven by younger demographics. The report details that optimism is concentrated among those aged 18-34, while older age groups expressed more caution regarding the coming year. This year&#39;s figures represent a significant rebound in public sentiment. The report describes the current optimism as one of the highest recorded since tracking began in 1994, comparable only to peaks seen in the late 1990s and mid-2010s. Methodology The findings for Pakistan are based on a sample of 1,000 respondents interviewed via Random Digit Dialling across all four provinces by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of the Gallup International Association. Globally, the survey interviewed 59,636 people across 60 countries.

Economy

Defying global pessimism, Pakistan outpaces India in economic and peace optimism for 2026, marking a significant rebound in national confidence.

Pakistan outpaces India in economic and peace optimism for 2026: Global survey

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has assigned India a &#39;C&#39; grade for its national accounts and government finance data in its 2025 Data Adequacy Assessment, marking the second consecutive year the country has received this rating.&nbsp; The grade indicates that India&#39;s economic statistics contain shortcomings that hamper effective surveillance and analysis. What does a &#39;C&#39; grade mean?The &#39;C&#39; rating signifies that the data provided to the IMF &quot;have some shortcomings that somewhat hamper surveillance.&quot;&nbsp; The rating places India below the &#39;A&#39; (adequate) and &#39;B&#39; (broadly adequate) categories, suggesting that persistent issues make it challenging for economists, investors, and policymakers to obtain a completely accurate and timely picture of the Indian economy. The report cites several reasons for the rating, including the use of an outdated base year, flawed deflation calculation methods, and a lack of government finance statistics. &#39;Numbers remain disappointing&#39; The report has attracted opposition criticism from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Indian government.&nbsp; Congress leader Jairam Ramesh, the party&#39;s general secretary in charge of communications, wrote on X that &ldquo;the economic numbers remain disappointing.&rdquo;<div class="fr-embed"><div class="twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered" style="display: flex; max-width: 550px; width: 100%; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;"><iframe id="twitter-widget-0" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" title="X Post" src="https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1994368354296222134&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fmain.d1wrm1qseko1cp.amplifyapp.com%2Farticles%2F&sessionId=6bc66bbe3b23caf8095de451d9a26e689bb3eb87&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&width=550px" style="position: static; visibility: visible; width: 550px; height: 897px; display: block; flex-grow: 1;">&nbsp;</iframe></div></div>The government is understating inflation to make GDP growth appear better, he said. &#39;Huge concern&#39; Opposition politicians are not the only ones calling out the government for the &#39;C&#39; grade report.&nbsp; Writing for The Wire, economist Arun Kumar, a former professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, called the C-grade rating a &quot;huge concern,&quot; noting that GDP data have been in disrepute since the 2011-12 series was introduced.&nbsp; Both Kumar and Pronab Sen, India&#39;s former chief statistician, said India&#39;s GDP is &quot;less than reliable,&quot; with problems arising from how India estimates the unorganized sector, according to The Wire. On the other hand, BJP leader Meenakashi Lekhi, quoted by The Print, dismissed the opposition&#39;s focus on the C-grade as &quot;cherry-picking&quot; and spinning a narrative to destabilize India. The opposition&#39;s use of the IMF rating, he said, appears to be part of a broader critique of the government&#39;s credibility in its economic data and statistical methodology.

The rating places India below the 'A' (adequate) and 'B' (broadly adequate) categories, suggesting that persistent issues make it challenging for economists, investors, and policymakers to obtain a completely accurate and timely picture of the Indian economy.

Articles tagged with "Indian economy"

India may slip into recession in 2026-27, economist warns

Pakistan outpaces India in economic and peace optimism for 2026: Global survey

IMF gives India 'C' grade on economic data quality