Shortly after French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned less than a month into the job, President Emmanuel Macron was seen walking by the River Seine in Paris, deep in a phone conversation, with only his security detail at a discreet distance. Whom Macron was speaking to and what he was discussing remain unclear. But the image symbolized the president’s growing political isolation as he faces a dwindling set of options — all of them fraught with risk.
With his second and final presidential term set to end in 2027, analysts say Macron has four possible courses of action. None offers an easy solution.
Reappoint Lecornu
Macron appears to have kept this option open after Bruno Le Maire — the loyal former finance minister whose appointment as defense minister triggered the crisis — announced his intention to withdraw from the government. The Elysee Palace then announced that Lecornu had been given two days to present an action plan, with the prime minister saying he would hold “final discussions” with “all the political forces.”
However, it remains uncertain whether Lecornu can form a government, let alone survive a confidence vote in parliament, where his allies are in the minority. Even if successful, his reappointment would not be automatic, a French presidential official said. “The fundamentals of the problem remain the same: with or without Le Maire, the other parliamentary blocs don’t agree on the budget, pension reform, immigration, and so forth,” said Paul Taylor, senior visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre.
A new prime minister
If Macron appoints a new prime minister, it would mark the eighth of his presidency and the third this year — hardly a sign of stability. The left has demanded that he name someone who would back a more expansionary budget, but it is unclear if Macron would do so. Even then, the new premier might not enjoy broad support across the divided left. “Another PM could be toppled within weeks — making a new legislative election almost inevitable,” said the Eurasia Group risk analysis firm.
Early elections
Macron has long resisted calling early elections after his gamble on snap polls in summer 2024 backfired, leaving France with a hung parliament. Yet, a presidential official said Macron would “assume his responsibilities” if Lecornu fails in the coming days — a comment widely interpreted as a signal he may dissolve parliament.
Such elections could boost the far-right National Rally of Marine Le Pen, potentially giving her protégé Jordan Bardella a path to the premiership. Still, the outcome remains uncertain. “It is unclear whether new elections would produce a different result than the one from last July,” said Celia Belin, head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Resignation
Macron has repeatedly dismissed the idea of resigning before his term ends, which would trigger an early presidential election. But pressure on him is mounting. “If new snap elections do not allow for a governing majority, the political crisis could turn into a regime crisis. In that case, President Macron’s ability to stay in power could be questioned,” Belin said.
